One sea, four shores
Four analysts, each resident in the market they cover — Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania and Ukraine. Nothing is sold from a distant desk, and nothing goes out until the people who actually know the ground have signed off on it.
Black Sea Risk Advisory Group
Political intelligence · Local judgement
BulgariaMoldovaRomaniaUkraine
Understand the politics before you make the commitment.
Political and country risk intelligence for investors, governments and think tanks operating in Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania and Ukraine. Four senior analysts, one in each capital, writing the assessment themselves.
- 4
- Capitals covered on the ground
- 2–4 weeks
- Typical turnaround on a full report
- EN / BG / RO / UA / RU
- Working and source languages
Why the Black Sea
Four partners, four markets, one assessment.
Black Sea Risk Advisory Group is a boutique practice built around a simple idea: the Black Sea region — Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania and Ukraine — is best read together, by people who live in it. The sea ties these markets into one political and security space, and no judgement leaves the practice until the analysts on the ground agree it holds.
Four perspectives on one file
These markets move together — energy, elections, EU accession, reconstruction money, Russian influence. A question asked in one capital is tested against what the other three partners see before anything is written down.
The neighbourhoods around the core
The Western Balkans, Poland and the Visegrád Four, and the Eastern Neighbourhood through to the South Caucasus — covered where they bear directly on your exposure in the core four.
Coverage
Four capitals we live in — and the neighbourhood that moves them.
Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania and Ukraine are held directly, each by a partner resident in the country. Around that core we cover the bilateral relations and regional dynamics that actually determine exposure.
Direct local coverage
Select a market to meet its partner.
Hover, tap, or use the list Active coverage
Core responsibilities
Ukraine · Kyiv
Sofiia Nazarenko
EU accession and the Association Agreement, wartime governance and reconstruction planning, defence technology and the miltech sector, and the security environment across the Black Sea.
What we do
Three services, each ending in a document you can act on.
We do not sell subscriptions to a dashboard or resell a database. Every engagement produces a written assessment signed by the person who researched it.
Written assessments of the political environment behind an investment: government stability, coalition arithmetic, regulatory direction, institutional capacity, energy and security exposure, and the influence of external actors.
- Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania and the wider CEE / Western Balkans context
- Scenario outlooks with indicators to watch, not single-point predictions
- Sourced in the local language from primary documents and public records
- Deliverable
- 15–30 page written assessment with a scenario outlook
- Turnaround
- 2–4 weeks
How we work
Engagement by engagement, scoped before anyone signs anything.
A boutique practice means you talk to the analyst, not an account manager. The sequence below is the whole of it.
- 01
Scoping call
A short, free conversation to define the decision you are trying to make. We tell you plainly whether we are the right people for it and what a useful answer would cost.
- 02
Desk research & local sourcing
Primary documents, registers, court and procurement records, local-language press and our own professional networks in each capital. Every claim is traceable to a source.
- 03
Written assessment
A structured report written for a decision-maker, not for an academic panel: findings first, evidence behind them, and an explicit statement of what we could not establish.
- 04
Follow-up briefing
A call to walk through the findings with the people who will act on them, plus a defined window for follow-up questions as your thinking develops.
Engagements are confidential by default. Where we cannot establish something to our own standard, the report says so rather than filling the gap with inference.
Themes
The questions that cut across all four countries.
Most engagements are not about one border. They are about a theme that behaves differently on each side of it.
Connectivity & infrastructure
Transport corridors, ports and grid interconnection across the Black Sea and Danube space.
Innovation & technology policy
Digital regulation, tech talent, R&D funding and where the four markets diverge.
Euro-Atlantic integration
EU accession and enlargement mechanics, NATO commitments and defence-industrial cooperation.
Energy security
Supply diversification, nuclear and renewables build-out, and exposure to Russian leverage.
EU funds & fiscal policy
Absorption capacity, procurement integrity and the fiscal path behind public tenders.
Reconstruction & post-war recovery
Ukraine's reconstruction pipeline, donor and IFI money, procurement integrity and the regional supply chains that will carry it.
Defence technology & miltech
Ukraine's defence-technology sector, drone and autonomous systems, and EU–Ukraine defence-industrial integration.
Hybrid warfare against Europe
Sabotage, GPS jamming, cyber and influence operations against EU states, and the lessons the war exports westward.
Foreign interference
Disinformation, elite capture and covert influence in politics, media and business.
Who we are
A practice of four principals. No juniors, no ghostwriters.
We are researchers and analysts by training, working on the questions investors, governments and think tanks actually face in this region. When you commission a report, one of the four names below writes it.
Ukraine, Poland & Baltic states
Sofiia Nazarenko
Partner profile · 01
Ukrainian journalist and analyst, television presenter and former Brussels and Warsaw correspondent for 24 Channel, and a Natolin College of Europe alumna. Based in Ukraine, she covers Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states, engagement with Brussels, Russian hybrid threats and information warfare.
- —College of Europe (Natolin) alumna
- —International affairs editor and presenter, 24 Channel; former correspondent, Radio France Internationale
- —Russian hybrid threats and information warfare
Publications
Published work, on the record.
A selection of public analysis that shows the questions we work on, the sources we use, and the judgement clients commission directly.
Featured analysis
Independent regional analysis from the people who undertake our client work.
Black Sea region
German Marshall Fund · December 2025
Democracy as Security: Europe must reinforce its presence on the Black Sea's frontline
Laurențiu Pleșca
Read publication- Laurențiu PleșcaGerman Marshall Fund — Policy Brief · August 2025How to Help Moldova Secure Its Fragile Democracy
- Laurențiu PleșcaGerman Marshall Fund · November 2023What we learned from Moldova's local elections
- Bogdan CozmaEmerging Europe · November 2024Rethinking the fight against disinformation in the Black Sea region
- Bogdan CozmaEmerging Europe · June 2024Winner takes all: Romania's election marathon
- Bogdan CozmaCross-border Talks · April 2025A strengthening of the strategic partnership between Poland and Romania
- Dr. Dimitar KeranovBulgarian Institute for International Politics · March 2026The Double Embrace: Russian and Chinese Influence in Bulgaria
- Dr. Dimitar KeranovTransitions · April 2025Democracy Captured: Bulgaria's Peevski Predicament
- Dr. Dimitar Keranov & Asya MetodievaTransitions · May 2024The Bulgarian Factor in North Macedonia's Elections
- Sofiia NazarenkoEUobserver · December 2025Ukraine after the war: EU cannot afford strategic ambiguity
- Sofiia Nazarenko24 Channel — author archive · OngoingInternational analysis: EU and NATO policy, and Russia's war against Ukraine
Service FAQ
The questions clients ask before they commission anything.
Scope, cost, timing, sourcing and confidentiality — answered plainly, so the scoping call can start somewhere useful.
What exactly do I receive at the end of an engagement?
A written document: a 15–30 page risk assessment, a structured counterparty file, or a short briefing note, depending on the service. Every engagement ends in something you can circulate internally, plus a call to walk through it.
How much does a report cost?
Pricing is per engagement and quoted after a free scoping call, because the work depends on the decision behind it. A focused counterparty check and a full country risk assessment are different orders of magnitude, and we say which one you actually need.
How fast can you turn something around?
Full risk reports take two to four weeks, counterparty checks one to three weeks, and briefings or expert calls the same week. Election nights are covered live. If a deadline is tighter than that, tell us at the scoping call and we will say plainly whether it is doable.
Do you work outside Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania and Ukraine?
Yes, where it bears directly on exposure in the core four: the Western Balkans, Poland and the Visegrád Four, and the Eastern Neighbourhood through to the South Caucasus. We decline work where we would not be adding first-hand knowledge.
Where does your information come from?
Primary documents, commercial and beneficial-ownership registers, court and procurement records, official statistics, local-language press, and our own professional networks. Every material claim is traceable to a source, and where a claim rests on a single source we say so.
Is the work confidential?
Engagements are confidential by default. We do not disclose client identities, we do not reuse client material in published commentary, and we will sign your NDA. We also flag any conflict of interest before accepting a mandate.
Is this investment advice?
No. We provide political and country risk analysis to inform your own decision-making. We are not regulated investment, legal or tax advisers and we do not recommend buying, selling or holding any asset.
Who actually writes the report?
One of the four partners, named on the document. There are no junior researchers behind the byline and no outsourced drafting.
Important notices
Not investment, legal or tax advice
Our reports are political and country risk analysis prepared for information purposes only. They are not investment research under any regulatory regime, not legal or tax advice, and not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any asset or to enter any transaction. Decisions taken on the basis of our work remain yours.
Sources, limits and uncertainty
Assessments rest on public records, documentary sources and professional networks available at the time of writing. Registers can be incomplete or out of date, and political situations change quickly. We state explicitly what we could not establish rather than filling gaps with inference, and scenarios are indicative rather than predictions.
Independence and personal capacity
The partners act in their personal professional capacity. Black Sea Risk Advisory Group is independent of, and its work does not represent the positions of, any institution, employer or organisation with which the partners are otherwise affiliated. Published commentary listed on this site belongs to its original publisher.
Confidentiality and conflicts
Client identities and engagement content are treated as confidential and are never reused in public commentary. Conflicts of interest are checked before a mandate is accepted, and disclosed or declined where they arise.
Full documents: terms of engagement, privacy notice and legal disclaimer.
Contact
Tell us what decision you are facing.
Describe the market, the counterparty or the exposure. We reply within one business day and tell you honestly whether we can add value.